The day's Vuelta a España discussion: Dumoulin on top; Aru looking good; Who leads Movistar?; Cummings; and how would Froome have done?

Dumoulin did it

Tom Dumoulin on stage seventeen of the 2015 Tour of Spain

Tom Dumoulin on his way to winning the Vuelta’s time trial

Living up to pre-stage and even pre-race expectation, Tom Dumoulin (Giant-Alpecin) did indeed smash it. He finished the Vuelta a España‘s key 38.7-kilometre time trial stage over a minute quicker than his closest challenger, and more crucially nearly two minutes quicker than general classification rival Fabio Aru (Astana) and three minutes to the good of Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha). It is his second stage win in the race.

Once again, that put the 24-year-old Dutchman into the coveted red jersey of race leader, but it’s by a slender margin: just three seconds over Aru. The chance of Dumoulin maintaining that gap, let alone increasing it is very slim.

>>> Dumoulin plays down lead as Vuelta heads for spectacular climax

Although he has ridden well in the high mountains to limit his losses, make losses he did. It’s hard to see him fending off attacks in the forthcoming days and keeping the race lead even beyond the next couple of testing stages.

But it was a fantastic ride, and one that came after two weeks of self-discovery for Dumoulin after disappointingly crashing out of the Tour de France. A new Grand Tour contender has most definitely been born in Spain this September.

Aru is still looking good for the win

Fabio Aru on stage sixteen of the 2015 Tour of Spain

Fabio Aru is still in a very strong position overall with more mountains looming

Despite Dumoulin’s time trial success and his defensive riding over the past two weeks, this year’s Vuelta will not be won on simply hanging on for its finale. Aru may have lost time to Dumoulin but he gained time on key rivals Rodriguez and Rafal Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo), and will do all he can to make up more time before the race concludes in Madrid on Sunday.

Aside from Dumoulin, of the GC contenders only Spanish Movistar duo Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana managed to better Italian Aru in the TT – and they are both better climbers than Dumoulin, albeit ones who have suffered flat spots in their form in the past week.

Aru doesn’t have to look far ahead for opportunities to overthrow his three second deficit on Dumoulin. The final week of Grand Tours are a war of attrition and often come down to whose soldiers are in the best shape – since Vincenzo Nibali’s departure from the race on its opening weekend, Astana has rallied behind Aru and look to be the most cohesive unit. That may make the difference, and hand Aru his first Grand Tour victory.

Who is leading Movistar now?

Alejandro Valverde on stage six of the 2015 Tour of Spain

Alejandro Valverde (left) put in a better TT performance than team-mate Nairo Quintana

Whilst Astana has a clear-cut leader in Aru, Movistar has two riders in concurrent positions in the general classification: Quintana in fifth and Valverde in sixth. Just 22 seconds separate them.

Both riders have yo-yoed up and down the top order of the GC, and both have suffered bad days. Valverde seemed to be flagging in the mountains but is now revitalised after Tuesday’s rest day. Quintana, too, appears to have fully recovered from the fever he was suffering. But can the pair maintain their energy, particularly as they rode in the Tour de France?

It’s likely now that Movistar will play a game of wait-and-see in the forthcoming stages rather than picking an undisputed leader; but that also means that the two riders are unlikely to work for each other, instead looking after their own interests. And that may turn out to be Movistar’s biggest weakness.

Cummings continues new lease of life at MTN-Qhubeka

Stephen Cummings in action on the Stage 17 Time Trial of the 2015 Vuelta Espana in Luarca

Stephen Cummings in action on the stage 17 time trial

Freed at last from domestique duties at Sky and BMC, Brit Steve Cummings looks like he’s enjoying himself at South African outfit MTN-Qhubeka. Having taken the team’s first Tour de France stage victory in July, Cummings is attempting to add another Grand Tour stage win at the Vuelta – previously getting into breaks and powering his way through today’s time trial.

The 34-year-old from the Wirral was top-placed British rider in the time trial, placing ninth at 1-40 behind stage winner Dumoulin.

The MTN squad as a whole has relished its wildcard invites in the top races this season, and paid back the show of confidence in them with some great racing.

With Kristian Sbaragli’s stage victory already tucked away and Louis Meintjes in 10th place overall, you can look out for more from MTN-Qhubeka in the coming week – and that Cummings will be a part of it.

How would Chris Froome have done today?

Chris Froome

Chris Froome didn’t make it as far as the Vuelta’s time trial, withdrawing after stage 11 with injury

One question that we can ask but never truly know the answer to is how Tour de France winner Chris Froome (Sky) would have done in the time trial had he still been in the race.

With only a very short individual time trial stage on the opening day of the Tour de France, we’ve been denied the opportunity to see Froome in any really decisive Grand Tour time trial this season after he was forced out of the Vuelta with a broken foot.

It’s highly likely that strong time triallist Froome would have beaten most of his GC rivals, but it’s doubtful that he would have beaten a flying Dumoulin today. The thought of the two riders going head-to-head in the Tour next year is an enticing prospect.

  • ȷack Dennisσn

    The thought of the two riders (Froome & Domulin) going head-to-head in the Tour next year is an enticing prospect. Why is there an assumption that Domulin will target the TDF. The Giro already has 3 ITT stages. Seems perfect for him.

  • arcidiavolo

    In Italy everibody says that Aru is going to win, for sure, this Vuelta Espana, but I am not so certain…
    Strong points of Dumoulin: in a flat finish he is stronger and faster than Aru, the leader jersey usually increase motivation and energy, despite the young age he looks very self confident and motivated and above all, nothing to lose, whatever result, he may be really proud about his performance and his team doesn’t put pressure for the victory.
    Week points of Dumoulin: the team, especially for the mountain stages is not strong at all, the pressure of dutch media; there is a whole country behind him, that is looking for a victory in a big tour 35 years after the tour de france by Zootemelk.
    Strong points of Aru: he is undoubtedly more cimber than Dumoulin, very strong team, with Landa, Cataldo and Rosa all three excellent climbers, not pressure by Italian media, few people in Italy are following the Vuelta.
    Week points of Aru: his team pretends the victory, a lot of pressure from Vinokurov and the sponsors from Kazakistan, he doesn’t have a succesfull mentality.
    In any case: “May the best man win!”

  • Edvid

    That was a great ride by Cummings – who’d have thought he’d be top 10 in two GT ITT at the beginning of the season? It should be enough to earn selection for the ITT in Richmond.