'On the limit but not impossible' - Mathieu van der Poel sees a path to second world title in Montréal

Mathieu van der Poel believes a hard, attritional race could improve his chances of claiming a second road world title in Montréal, arguing that accumulated fatigue can help him bridge the gap to the pure climbers on a course he describes as being on the outer edge of his capabilities.

The Dutchman pre-rode the World Championships circuit ahead of Sunday's elite men's road race and found it largely in line with his expectations. The climbing is substantial enough to make him cautious about his chances, but not enough for him to rule himself out of contention for a second rainbow jersey.

“It was more or less in line with what I expected," Van der Poel told the media on Thursday evening. “Like I said before, it's simply a difficult circuit. Probably just on the limit, but not impossible."

Reiterating what he has said throughout the build-up to the Worlds, Van der Poel added: “I don't think I'm one of the biggest favourites, but I still have a chance of winning the race if everything goes well."

Van der Poel compared the twisting, constantly undulating nature of the Montréal circuit to Glasgow, where he soloed to gold in 2023, although he was quick to point out one significant difference.

"The climb here is obviously harder than what we had in Glasgow," he said.

“Glasgow was even more about short, punchy climbs, whereas here, especially from around the last 500 metres before the finish all the way to the top, it's longer. It's a really difficult climb. But a lot will depend on how the race develops."

For the race to play out in his favour, Van der Poel is hoping for a tough, attritional contest. While he revealed that he is currently lighter than he was in the spring, the 31-year-old is not built like a pure climber. Instead, he believes his ability to continue producing high power after hours of hard racing could help offset that disadvantage.

"I think it's to my advantage if it's a hard race," he said. "That knocks the numbers down for everyone a little towards the end, and I think that allows you, as a Classics rider, to get closer to the climbers.

"The harder, the better, I think. If I'm good, of course. I think one of my strengths is that after a hard race I can still produce my watts. The harder the race is, the closer I get to the real climbers, so to speak."

That does not mean the Netherlands intend to take responsibility for making the race hard from the outset. Van der Poel expects other nations to take up that task while the Dutch team focuses on staying alert to moves as they develop.

“I don't think it's up to us to make it hard," he said. “There are other countries better suited to doing that. But we'll be attentive. I think more than enough countries already have plans to make the race hard, so it'll be up to us to be alert and make sure we're there."

A World Championships without Pogačar

The absence of Tadej Pogačar hangs a tactical picture in Montréal.

Van der Poel believes the Slovenian's absence could encourage a much broader group of riders and nations to race aggressively, with contenders who might otherwise have been racing for the minor medals suddenly seeing a path towards the rainbow jersey.

"Because Tadej isn't here, I think a lot of riders suddenly see a chance to become world champion," Van der Poel said. "That will change the race."

But how exactly it changes the race, Van der Poel cannot predict.

"I've thought about it a lot, but I don't have an answer either," he said. "Like always, I can write down a thousand scenarios, but on Sunday there will only be one, and we'll have to react to that."

Van der Poel admitted Pogačar's absence was a loss, both from a sporting perspective and because of what the Slovenian represents while wearing the rainbow jersey.

"I do think it's a shame," he said. "For the race and in general as well. As world champion, he's a figurehead for the sport. He's simply the best rider of the moment, and I think it's nice when a rider like that wears the world champion's jersey."

Without race radios at the World Championships, Van der Poel expects the uncertainty to be amplified. It is an environment he believes suits his instinctive style of racing.

"That's always the beautiful thing about a World Championships: it's very unpredictable," he said. "Especially without radios, suddenly it can be over. I think that's something that suits me."

When asked about his main competitors, Van der Poel singled out Remco Evenepoel and Paul Seixas as riders who have that valued combination of climbing ability and endurance needed for an attritional race.

He also pointed to France and the United States as nations to watch with strength in their depths.

‘It's not over if you can't follow once'

Van der Poel said that his course recon reinforced his view that the main climb will be the decisive feature of the circuit, but the shorter ascents that follow could become increasingly damaging as the kilometres accumulate.

It'll be an attritional race, no doubt, but the course does provide opportunities for riders to claw their way back on, Van der Poel thinks.

"If you're still riding hard yourself, maybe you lose 15 seconds if you're having a good day, and then the race certainly isn't over. Of course, that isn't going to work every lap either. But that's what makes it interesting," he said.

Van der Poel arrived in Canada after a remarkable victory in Luxembourg, where a 174km solo stage win showed promise of his late-season condition.

"On the one hand, it shows that the form is good, but it's no guarantee of success this Sunday."

There is also a degree of ease that comes from already knowing what it takes to win a World Championships. Asked whether his 2023 title gave him an advantage over younger contenders such as Seixas, Van der Poel said experience could make decision-making easier in the decisive moments.

"I think it's always a little easier to make decisions during the race when you've already won," he said. "The goal is still to try to become world champion again, but maybe it gives you a little more calm and makes it easier to make decisions in the final."

Van der Poel goes into Sunday's race, the last of his season, in an unusual position: not the obvious favourite, but unwilling to rule himself out.

"I'm looking forward to it..It's also my last race of the season. I've never raced here before, and it was always the plan to do Québec and Montréal at some point, but that never happened. I've worked hard for it, like everyone probably has, so hopefully I can make something beautiful out of it."