When Tadej Pogačar crashed out of the Vuelta a España, the news sent shockwaves worldwide.
The Slovenian left La Vuelta with injuries severe enough that he will miss the rest of the 2026 season. Not only did that open the door for Enric Mas (Movistar) to win the Vuelta, but it also meant that Pogačar would be unable to defend his rainbow jersey in Montréal.
Before Pogačar crashed out, most riders were likely just aiming for the podium at the Road World Championships. His absence changes everything.
And I’d argue that Team USA has its best chance of winning in decades, with Brandon McNulty among the race favourites. Here’s why.
Pogačar has been unstoppable on hilly courses, winning everything from Milan-San Remo and Liège-Bastogne-Liège to Strade Bianche and Il Lombardia in the past few seasons. The race that most closely mimics the upcoming Worlds is the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal. While Pogačar has won that twice before, last year he finished second behind his teammate, McNulty.
In 2025, the American launched the race-winning move with 36km to go, joined by compatriot Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek), Louis Barré (then Intermarché-Wanty) and Pogačar. The latter split the group again with less than 20km to go. Eventually, McNulty attacked off Simmons’ wheel to bridge across to Pogačar (who, it should be said, may have been waiting for his teammate), and the pair rode arm-in-arm across the finish line.
It’s easy to say that McNulty’s victory was a gift, but the American was certainly the first or second-strongest rider that day, having shown the strength to drop everyone in the race bar Pogačar.
The Americans had quite the day in 2025, with Simmons finishing third and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) breaking away from the peloton to finish fourth. All three will be on the same team come September 27, joined by Matteo Jorgenson, Kevin Vermaerke, Larry Warbasse, Artem Schmidt and Sean Quinn.
Team USA is, without a doubt, one of the strongest teams in the race, especially after McNulty and Simmons just finished third and fourth, respectively, in the 2026 GP Montréal. But can team tactics make a difference on the Montréal road race course?
The World Championship road race uses the same city circuit as GP Montréal, with the defining feature of a 1.6-kilometre climb called the Voie Camillien-Houde. The climb snakes its way up through Mount Royal Park before descending into the city streets. There is a 500-metre difference between the Worlds loop and the GP Montréal circuit, but the essential climbs and descents are identical.
If there is only one thing to know about the Montréal city circuits, it’s that there is hardly a flat metre of road. Every twist, turn and pitch makes it difficult to organise a chase. That means breakaways are more likely to succeed.
In the post-pandemic era, the winning group at GP Montréal has never been larger than five riders. Pogačar won in 2022 and 2024, Adam Yates outsprinted Pavel Sivakov in 2023, McNulty won in 2025, and Isaac del Toro outsprinted Paul Seixas to win this year’s edition. It has always been a race of attrition, with the peloton growing thinner and thinner each lap around Montréal.
The rider who wins will need a combination of high fatigue resistance and VO2 max power. There are plenty of riders who can push 8w/kg for five minutes, but how many can do the same numbers after five hours of racing?
McNulty is one of those few, as he displayed in the last two editions of GP Montréal. Not only did he finish alongside Pogačar in 2025, but he arguably did more work, sitting in the wind, launching the winning move and then bridging solo to Pogačar in the finale.
While it’s easy to draw comparisons between GP Montréal and the World Championships, there are a few key differences. Let’s start with the route.
GP Montréal is 209 kilometres long, while the 2026 Road Worlds is 273 kilometres. Instead of the 17 repeats of the Voie Camillien-Houde that we see in GP Montréal, the Worlds course features only 12 laps of the city circuit, preceded by a 100-kilometre flatter section.
That means the early break at Worlds will form on the flats, whereas at GP Montréal it forms on the Voie Camillien-Houde, which is featured at kilometre zero. Break formation is crucial on a route like this because the breakaway riders have a legitimate chance of making it to the finish. Of course, chances favour the peloton, but chasing on a hilly city circuit is easier said than done.
When looking at the list of pre-race favourites, it might seem crazy to mention McNulty among them. The list includes Remco Evenepoel, Wout van Aert, Isaac del Toro, Paul Seixas, Mathieu van der Poel and more. McNulty’s résumé isn’t as impressive as those of the biggest names, but you have to remember that he has spent the majority of his career riding in service of Pogačar. The American has been instrumental in many of Pogačar’s Tour triumphs and has had little opportunity to ride for himself since joining UAE Team Emirates in 2020.
Perhaps the biggest factor playing in McNulty’s favour is the timing of his peak. Late September is notorious for mental and physical burnout, lost motivation and a longing for the off-season. While Van Aert was flying at the Vuelta, it’s difficult to say if he’ll be able to maintain that form for two more weeks. Evenepoel, Del Toro and Seixas have enjoyed a long break after the Tour, but we’ve already seen how difficult it is to peak for a specific one-day race. While Del Toro won this year’s GP Montréal, he was dropped from the lead group only two days before at GP Québec.
In 2025, McNulty was in the form of his life in August and September. He won the Tour de Pologne, GP Montréal, Tour de Luxembourg and CRO Race, with those final two races finishing on September 21 and October 5. The Worlds road race is on September 27 this year, and McNulty has already shown he is in top shape with his podium finish at GP Montréal.
Instead of fighting each other for the podium, Simmons and McNulty will team up at the World Championships. With the help of Jorgenson, Vermaerke and more, the American team has a legitimate chance of winning the rainbow jersey.