I won't be surprised if Tadej Pogačar wins Paris-Roubaix, but it will still be an achievement for the ages

"The cobbles, the stress on the body, it’s definitely one of the roughest, toughest, hardest races I’ve done. I think I gained some experience that maybe next time that I come here it will not be so extremely hard as it was today."

Almost 365 days ago, that was Tadej Pogačar's verdict after his debut Paris-Roubaix, where he finished second, looking as exhausted as I have ever seen him after a race. It wasn't the buoyant, jokey man we have all become used to, but someone who had been put through the wringer.

He finished second that day, behind Mathieu van der Poel, after a performance which belied any kind of conception of what we thought about the 'Hell of the North'. We might have expected the supreme race-craft, the positioning and the power, but this was a Tour de France winner, a climber, going toe-to-toe with Van der Poel, without any experience of the race. He did crash, possibly showing his naivety, but he still finished second, beating Classics specialists like Mads Pedersen and Wout van Aert.

Adam Becket

News editor at Cycling Weekly, Adam brings his weekly opinion on the goings on at the upper echelons of our sport in The Leadout, a newsletter series from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here.

Last year it felt like an adventure, almost a free hit – we didn't know what to expect, so second place was huge, a confirmation that yes, the Slovenian could do something not seen since 1981, and win both the Tour and Roubaix.

This year is different. There is pressure on the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider, because we all know he could win. Forget question marks over his knowledge of the race, over whether he's heavy enough to perform on the pavé or whether a general classification rider could look at home in the biggest Classic of them all.

It is now a serious possibility, maybe even 50:50, that Pogačar will win Paris-Roubaix. He is no longer a wildcard, an outsider, and could become the first person since Roger De Vlaeminck in 1977 to win all five Monuments, and become the first person ever to be the champion of all five at the same time. Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia last year, Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders in 2026. There is only one left. I will not be surprised if he wins. That would have once sounded ridiculous, but no more.

The 27-year-old goes into almost every race as the favourite, so this is nothing new for him, but it will change the perception of the race. His rivals can look to him and his team to pull, to chase every move, to be in charge of the race, essentially. A moment of inattention could result in an incident like last year's minor crash, or something altogether more serious. The stress will be real.

It is not a done deal, however, no fait accompli. This isn't Flanders, Strade Bianche, or Lombardia, races that suit Pogačar to an overwhelming extent. There is the chaos of the cobbles, and also the 170 riders in the race to contend with. Van der Poel of Alpecin-Premier Tech is top of the pile of these, with three wins in a row; he appears to be able to power through the race unlike anyone else, and has sprinter Jasper Philipsen as a teammate to muddy the waters in any chase. The Dutchman is chasing legendary status himself, with the opportunity to be the first person to win four in a row.

The race itself is incredibly flat, for a WorldTour event anyway. There isn't a clear route to victory for Pogačar, no Oude Kwaremont or Le Tolfe to climb away on.

"Maybe the best [thing] would be to attack with surprise, but I don’t think I can do that anymore. Everybody’s looking at me," Pogačar told Cycling Weekly earlier this year. "I’ll just go with the flow, see where the race takes me, and try to gamble for the final maybe, with a small group sprint. I know after such a tough race I can do, for me, a solid sprint. There’s always a chance."

Beyond Van der Poel and Philipsen, Lidl-Trek's Pedersen has finished on the podium of the last two editions, and is coming back into top form, while Van Aert of Visma-Lease a Bike is surely due another shot at victory at the race which probably suits him more than any other.

There's Ineos Grenadiers' Filippo Ganna, former world time trial champion, and winner of Dwars door Vlaanderen this year, and strong sprinters like Jordi Meeus (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe), Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike), Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché) and late addition Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step). There is also a sense that the race is due a surprise winner, something not unusual at the mayhem in Northern France. It's 10 years since Mat Hayman won, after all.

However, there is something inevitable about Pogačar, something that just feels right. If he wins – if – it might not be a surprise, it would not scramble our brains, but perhaps it should. Riders in 2026 aren't supposed to be able to win it all, but somehow the Slovenian can and is. All we have to do now is sit back and watch history happen.