Watching stage 19 of the Tour de France in a freezing La Plagne, just beyond the finish line, everyone was counting down the kilometres until Tadej Pogačar would launch his usual stinging attack. Would it be 5km to go? 3km? Even 1km? He has the speed.
Thymen Arensman had attacked early on the climb to La Plagne, but was only around 20 seconds ahead of Pogačar, who was in a group with Jonas Vingegaard, Florian Lipowitz and Oscar Onley for most of the final effort. 20 seconds is the kind of gap that at another race, or earlier in this Tour, Pogačar would have eviscerated with one of his trademark moves. This is the man who seemingly wants to win as much as possible, that we all thought could win seven at this Tour after he won four of the first 13.
However, it didn't happen. Pogačar, too, was counting down the kilometres, but for a different reason, hoping that the pace he was setting would be enough to deter Vingegaard from attacking behind him, half-assuming that they might catch Arensman anyway, but the Dutchman held them off, to win his second stage of this race.
"I don't know, I was counting down the kilometres from the end," Pogačar said in his post-stage press conference. "Arensman went super good, I was hoping that I could set the pace I could feel comfortable with, and then if somebody attacked I could still accelerate, that's why I had to set such a pace. Arensman went stronger. I had to set the rhythm, so in the end, I was happy with how we rode today. The mountains are done."
He argued he was still going for the stage, but seemingly he didn't account for a rider going better: "No one wanted to pull, I attacked and then I was thinking maybe me and Jonas could go to the top. I tried to set a rhythm, and Arensman was stronger."
The bare truth is, Pogačar is seemingly exhausted. It has been 19 stages of hard racing, which the world champion raced from the off. Perhaps this is a mature performance, a defensive ride where he didn't need to do any more. He came into the stage leading the race by 4:26, and ended it leading it by 4:24, with no big climbing days left. This is mission accomplished, even if it is not the norm from Pogačar.
"I'm obviously tired," he said. "It's not been an easy Tour. People attacking me from left and right, from day one until the end. Being focused, motivated. The priority is the yellow jersey, so I was counting down the kilometres because I was going with my pace and hoping that nobody would attack from behind, and that's it. Sometimes you just count down the kilometres."
"Everyone is tired," his UAE Team Emirates-XRG team manager Mauro Gianetti echoed. "We saw again today, they were well-matched, so again it was a late battle between him and Vingegaard, because I think Jonas was probably thinking 'I hope he attacks early so I can pass Arensman', and Tadej was perhaps thinking the same thing: 'I hope Vinegaard is going to attack early so we can catch Arensman'. But in the end, neither one attacked, and Arensman won on merit."
"Every time anyone accelerated, they remained together, so it's difficult to analyse this," he continued. "I think Vingegaard is also growing maybe. When we see the gap, he's [Pogačar's] good. He's in the yellow jersey. The objective is the Tour, and tomorrow is not an easy stage also. You need to think long term. Jonas and Tadej both were without a teammate at the bottom of the climb, and everybody is tired. Even Sunday in Paris is not the classic stage, so day by day."
Pogačar has won four stages, meaning he now has 21 at the race. It's feasible he could win in Paris on Sunday, with its ascents of Monmartre like the Olympic road race course, but it also seems likely that the 26-year-old has done his racing at this year's race.
"I am already satisfied with yellow," Pogačar explained. "I don't feel super energised right now to think about Sunday's racing. It's a really hectic parcours, so I think it's going to be a tough one. We will see what happens. Tomorrow is possibly more of an important day."
Saturday's stage 20 is not an easy day, but it looks ripe for a breakaway, with four classified climbs, 2,916 metres of climbing in 184.2km. It should be controlled, however. Four minutes is enough, now.
Pogačar doesn't need to win any more, his fourth yellow jersey is secure, and he has won almost everything he has wanted to this year. It's a surprise when he doesn't win, that's all, that's the extent of his domination. The Slovenian has won the Tour de France, more or less. That's all that should matter.
"I can't wait for it to be over," he said the day before, on Thursday. The good news is, it almost is. Two stages left.
