As the Tour de France’s first half approaches its conclusion, it’s Tadej Pogačar who is – predictably – in yellow and in charge, with his two main rivals, Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard, sitting 54 and 77 seconds adrift, respectively, ahead of the Bastille Day battle in the Massif Central on stage 10.
They’re not massive time gaps, but as the mountains finally appear, the prevailing thought is that Pogačar is in the driving seat and en-route to his fourth Tour title.
But there’s a very strong case still to be made for Vingegaard – and one that Pogačar has willingly acknowledged.
OK, Vingegaard’s time trial performance on stage five – when he shipped 1:21 to Evenepoel and 1:05 to Pogačar – was not what he, nor his Visma-Lease a Bike team, expected. In the past he’s beaten Pogačar in against the clock, but this time he was outclassed. In the race of truth, the reality was that Pogačar was far superior.
Yet Vingegaard’s performances during the rest of the first week suggest that the TT was simply an off-day for the 28-year-old, and not indicative of wider performance issues. The parcours in the opening seven days – punchy and Classics-like – appeared to suit Pogačar more than Vingegaard, but the pair were inseparable on the short, small climbs.
Yes, Pogačar beat him in the three uphill sprints, claiming 12 bonus seconds in the process, but Vingegaard was half-a-bike length behind him each time. The pre-race assumption that Pogačar would gain if not significant but notable time on his great rival in the first third of the race didn’t come to pass.
Added to that, it was Vingegaard who drove the peloton on stage one during strong crosswinds that caused a split in the bunch, catching numerous riders out including Evenepoel. And again on stage nine, when crosswinds split the bunch, Pogačar was one of only two UAE riders in the front group, while Vingegaard was supported by five colleagues.
Matteo Jorgenson, his Visma teammate, said before the race began that the Dutch squad had a “Classics team with a few climbers along for the ride”, and the selection has so far paid dividends; in the road stages, they’ve not bettered Pogačar and UAE, but they have limited their losses.
And there are growing signs that Pogačar is frustrated that he hasn’t eked out bigger time gaps, other than in the TT. He has been questioning Visma's tactics, and even called on them to “pay respect to everybody” after he appeared to push Jorgenson in a stage seven feed zone when the American attempted to collect a bidon.
Visma promised that they came to the Tour with a game plan designed to outwit and outthink Pogačar, and it looks like they are successfully getting in the mind of the world champion. How crucial could the psychological effect be when the mountains come?
Additionally, there are troublesome realities for UAE Team Emirates-XRG to confront, principal among them that their support squad isn’t as strong as it was at the outset. João Almeida abandoned the race on stage nine with a broken rib; Adam Yates has shipped minutes in the GC; and Marc Soler crashed on stage eight, though he didn’t appear to have been hurt. That’s three of Pogačar’s mountain domestiques either at home or seemingly not at their best.
Visma, meanwhile, have another card to play in the GC fight in the form of Jorgenson who is sixth overall, 1:34 down from Pogačar. It was only three years ago, in 2022, that Visma outnumbered UAE in the mountains and exposed Pogačar, particularly on the famous Col du Granon day. Could history be about to repeat itself?
Pogačar is certainly aware to the possibility: "I think they should be confident – If I was them [I would be]," he said after stage nine. "It's still two weeks to go. Losing one rider today [Almeida] is a bit of a disadvantage, but I am still pretty confident in my team."
There is also a strong argument to be made that the second half of the race suits Vingegaard more and thus there are more opportunities for him. The mountain time trial in the Pyrenees on stage 13, for instance, ought to lend itself to Vingegaard’s lighter build, and he’s demonstrated before in uphill tests against the clock that he tends to put a decent amount of time into Pogačar, who, it’s worth mentioning, praised Vingegaard before the race began as “the best climber in the world.”
What’s more, the two toughest days in the Alps – stages 18 and 19 – regularly pass 2,000m of elevation. In 2024, Pogačar was stronger than Vingegaard at altitude, but historically the Dane has had the upper hand when the air becomes rarefied. And this time Vingegaard isn’t on the comeback trail, like he was 12 months ago.
What will happen is anyone’s guess, but writing off Vingegaard before his terrain has even arrived is foolhardy. And as he said after stage seven: “I still believe in myself, and that we can make a difference in the second or third week.”
