'The level is getting a bit scary' - is it harder to win at the Tour de France in the Tadej Pogačar era?

The Tour de France has a long history of dynasties. In the 1960s, Jacques Anquetil became the first rider to win four yellow jerseys in a row – a feat that was unprecedented – until Eddy Merckx did the same a few years later. Then came Miguel Induráin in the 90s, the first to win five consecutively. Team Sky, the deep-pocketed super-squad, won seven out of eight Tours in the 2010s.

The 2020s belong to two men: Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard. The pair have provided one of the sport’s great rivalries, sharing the last five editions between them, and chasing victories along the way. No rider this decade has collected more Tour stage wins than the Slovenian – 17, of which six came last year alone.

With each Pogačar triumph comes heartbreak for those crossing the line after. How do riders stay motivated to hunt stages against such a prodigy? Is it easy to attack and keep faith? Or does the dominance dampen morale too much?

Among the debutants at this year’s Tour is Lidl-Trek’s Thibau Nys. A former junior and under-23 cyclo-cross world champion, the Belgian is part of a new generation of gung-ho bike racers. He thrives on tough stages, particularly those with a steep finish, of which a smattering come in the Tour’s opening week. In theory, they’re days that suit the 23-year-old, but he comes across defeatist ahead of the Grand Départ.

“I’m not as confident as I hoped to be at this moment,” says Nys, perched in a wicker chair outside Lidl-Trek’s team hotel. A recent crash hasn’t helped his hopes, but there’s also a deeper feeling that victories will be harder to come by against the sport’s biggest stars. A lot harder.

“We see the level of these guys these days, it’s getting a bit scary,” he says. “I know my level, but I don’t know how it will compare to the level of the guys in the Tour because everyone I speak with says, ‘In the Tour, it’s different, you know?’ I know that I’ll need to be at 110%, and even higher than that, to try to fight for a stage win.”

Nys’s feelings are common among the teams ahead of the start in Lille. “The best riders in the world are going to try to win as much as they can,” Stephen Barrett, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale head coach, tells Rouleur. No longer do the GC riders save their battles for the mountains, they target the lumpy days too, and sometimes even the sprints. Last year, almost 30% of the stages were won by one person: Pogačar.

One rider who has fallen victim to the world champion in the past is Primož Roglič. In 2020, he relinqushed yellow in a dramatic penultimate day time trial, overhauled at the last moment by Pogačar. Five years on, the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider has come to peace with his Tour story; it’s one, he knows, will likely never finish on the Tour’s top step.

“You have to just look into the facts, you’re competing with the same guys – Tadej’s on his own level,” Roglič says, addressing the media inside Lille’s Opéra theatre. “When you give your best, sometimes you’re the best, and sometimes you can be 10th. You can control just yourself, not the guys around [you].”

For 35-year-old Roglič, there’s solace in letting go of the dream – “winning it or not, it is what is; myself, my family, everyone around me, it will be the same afterwards,” he says – but not everyone’s hopes have been dashed.

Others, like last year’s third-placed rider Remco Evenepoel, have found a deeper will to try and beat the super-talents of Pogačar and Vingegaard.

“I think it would be unfair towards myself, towards the team, to say that I’m not here to compete with them,” Evenepoel says. “Last year I was the third guy, and I’m here to try and improve that a bit… Everybody knows that my career goal is to try and win the three Grand Tours. I have one in my pocket, so two to go.”

It’s an optimism that’s also shared by Picnic PostNL’s Oscar Onley, who, like Nys, is after stage wins this month. “Maybe because I’m young, I’m naive, and I still think that I can do anything,” Onley smiles. “You’ve just got to keep trying.”

On debut last year, the Scot felt firsthand the disappointment of attacks falling through. “I was halfway through the race thinking, ‘What am I doing here? I’m getting in the break every day and then just watching the race pass me halfway through the stage’,” he says.

Then, on stage 17, his attacks bore the fruits of a fifth place, a result that reminded him to never give up. “That keeps you motivated,” he says. “You’ve just got to go all-in every day and hope that one day it sticks.”

Over the next three weeks, all eyes will be on Pogačar and Vingegaard to light up the race. The tide of the current dynasty tells us it’s likely one of them will win overall. But that shouldn’t deter others from joining the day-to-day tussle. “I always keep the faith, for sure,” says Lidl-Trek’s Nys. The rest of the peloton will try to do the same, too.