It would be easy to cast your eye over the final general classification at the Critérium du Dauphiné and make the assumption that the Tour de France is over before it has even got underway, the yellow jersey is already won. Most of us have long since run out of superlatives to describe Tadej Pogačar, with last week’s race only further confirmation of his ability.
This wasn't just your run of the mill Pogačar whitewash, this was the Slovenian putting in a big performance; landing a huge psychological blow against his main rival, Jonas Vingegaard, with the Grand Départ approaching.
Marc Madiot - general manager at Groupama-FDJ - didn’t hold back when he reflected on the current world champion’s display: "He's hammering the nail into Vingegaard's head. Pogačar has killed him mentally," he told RMC during the race. "Look at Vingegaard's face on Saturday… Pogačar crushed him."
The suggestion that Pogačar eventually "crushed" his opponent is probably not over-egging it - three stage wins and taking the overall win by almost a minute accurately fits that description, but the Tour is still three weeks away and there is plenty of time yet for the tables to turn.
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While he will undoubtedly be disheartened by the end result, Vingegaard will now travel to Tignes for a final altitude camp safe in the knowledge that the harsh truths revealed can easily become a distant memory by the time Mont Ventoux arrives in the Tour's third week.
For a start, he will head to Lille with a solid supporting cast, on paper. The Dane can call on the likes of Giro d’Italia winner Simon Yates and a clearly in-form Wout van Aert for support when it's needed. Whereas if the provisional start list is to be believed, Pogačar is set to be without his key lieutenant, Rafał Majka, although there are many other solid supporting riders for UAE Team Emirates-XRG.
Visma-Lease a Bike will know they can capitalise on their strength in depth, particularly during the altitude heavy final week of racing, and they will be buoyed by the way in which they shed most of Pogačar's teammates ahead of the final climb last Saturday. A small win to some, particularly given the end result, but the Dutch team won't see it that way.
The team used its superior firepower to great aplomb on the road to the Col du Granon in 2022, a day Pogačar won’t have forgotten in a hurry. Matteo Jorgenson, two-time winner of Paris-Nice, will also line up alongside the Visma team leader, along with the American Vuelta a España winner and super domestique, Sepp Kuss.
Vingegaard can also rest safe in the knowledge that he was evidently better than Pogačar in the Dauphiné time trial. His performance meant that the man in the rainbow bands had work to do and time to make up, even if it was just 38 seconds.
With a time trial coming early on in the Tour de France, Vingegaard could yet strike his own psychological blow over the Slovenian in Caen, with the Tour just five days in, before the mountains and chances to repeatedly isolate his opponent have even arrived.
"If we're realistic and objective," Madiot added, continuing his assessment of the duo, "there's no contest at the moment." That may seem true if you sit back and assess the situation, particularly if you're comparing results in 2025 alone.
But yet there are still six weeks to go before the race reaches Paris, and plenty of kilometres to tick past before the winner has been decided. It's still all to play for at this year's Tour de France and Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike cannot be written off just yet.
