The Tour de France is not over. There are still nine days to come, many more chances to be taken. the race might not even be done by Paris. These will be the words Visma-Lease a Bike will be repeating around the dinner table tonight in their hotel, even if they ring a bit hollow.
The truth is, the Tour de France might be over. On stage 12 to Hautacam, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) put 2:14 into Visma-Lease a Bike's Jonas Vingegaard. The Slovenian now leads by 3:31, the biggest gap at this stage since he led by 5:18 after day 12 in 2021. He went on to win that race.
Sure, anything could still happen. Pogačar crashed on stage 11 in Toulouse, he could crash again and actually lose time, injure himself or be forced to abandon. He could get sick. This might be a complete ruse, and his bad day could come in the Alps next week.
Some of these things seem like wishful thinking, and others hoping for events outside anyone's control. It feels like it might have got to that point for Visma-Lease a Bike at this Tour already; for all their effort, their clever tactics and attacking brio, Pogačar is a step better than Vingegaard. It was true on the stage five time trial in Caen, and it was blatant on the Hautacam. On the two proper general classification days so far, Pogačar has won. There are five more to come.
"We didn't expect to lose two minutes today, but this is what it is, and we have to live with it," Visma DS Grischa Niermann told Wielerflits at the finish. "We tried to push the pace, but that wasn't going very well because Matteo [Jorgenson] suddenly had to drop. We can't look at the riders, of course. We then slowed down the pace. We did stick to the plan to attack with Jonas on the last climb. Only Pogačar was clearly in a class of his own."
The last time the Tour de France visited Hautacam, roles were reversed, with Vingegaard all-but sealing the yellow jersey with that victory. This time, a pessimist would see the writing on the wall for his challenge to Pogačar. The Dane cut a forlorn figure as he finished, then having to descend the mountain he had just suffered on and climb onto his team bus. He did not speak to the press.
"Jonas felt good, but I think he went a bit crazy on the last climb," Niermann said. "I told him to do his own thing, to make his own plan. And he did. He still finished second. But Pogačar was clearly too strong."
The signs might be ominous, but Vingegaard and Visma plan to keep fighting, keep trying to unseat Pogačar, the world champion. It won't be easy.
"We couldn't have done more than we did," Niermann said. "Tomorrow we have a hill-climbing time trial. Then we'll have to see what's possible. We're currently facing a significant deficit. We have to be honest about that. But there's still a lot to come. We'll definitely remain competitive. But right now, the strongest man is in the yellow jersey."
Friday's test is a 10.9km time trial with 645m of climbing. If Vingegaard can hit back here, it will be proof that the race is still on, that it won't be Pogačar in yellow for a fourth time. The Tour de France is not over. Not yet.
