Tour de France 2024: Five predictions from our experts

It's finally here, the biggest race of the men's calendar, the Tour de France. 

After months of build up and preparation, the likes of Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard will roll out of Florence for a mountainous opening test amongst the hills and medium mountains of Tuscany. 

Question marks surrounded the fitness of Vingegaard coming into the race due to the injuries he sustained in a major fall in the Spring. However, Pogačar revealed that he had suffered his own pre-Tour setback on Thursday after suffering with a late bout of Covid-19. 

Will it be Pogačar? Will it be Vingegaard? Or could the likes of Remco Evenepoel or Primož Roglič be the men to disrupt the battle between the two winners of the last four editions of the race. 

Whatever happens, there’s bound to be fireworks and watching on at home you can also expect the unexpected to unfold.

With that said, here are Cycling Weekly’s five big predictions for this year’s edition of the French Grand Tour.
 

Only two of the 'big four' will make the podium - Adam Becket

This was supposed to be the Tour de France of the ‘big four’. You know, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe) all coming together for a titanic clash. It was supposed to be a Grand Tour like we hadn’t seen for years, where the general classification was truly a tussle between the very best, and one that was live all the way to the end, thanks to the action-packed final week and last-day time trial.

It might still be, and as a fan and a journalist I certainly hope so. However, the crash at Itzulia Basque Country robbed us of this dream somewhat. Vingegaard and Evenepoel came worst off, with the former not racing since then, and the latter only taking part in the Dauphiné. Evenepoel won a stage there, but didn’t look convincing in the mountains. Roglič was also affected, and was not severely injured, but might not be at his best yet. 

That leaves Pogačar, off the back of his dominant Giro d’Italia. Dominant barely describes that performance, but it will have to do. Roglič is tenacious, and will stick with Pogačar for most of the race, although I do suspect the UAE man will win overall. 

Vingegaard and Evenepoel wouldn’t be there if they couldn’t perform, but I don’t see them making the podium. The dream of the Tour for the ages might be dead.

Ben Healy will take the race's first yellow jersey - Tom Thewlis

Ben Healy seemed quietly confident regarding just how far he can go during the opening weekend of the Tour when I spoke to the Irishman on Friday. 

The 23-year-old is making his debut at the Tour, and has circled stage one in the roadbook as day for him to immediately stamp his mark on the race. The lumpy parcours on offer, featuring more than 3,500 metres of elevation gain, seems tailor made to a rider of Healy’s strengths, as does stage two to Bologna.

Many are now predicting on the ground in Florence that the first day could eventually turn into a battle between the WorldTour’s best Classics riders for the stage win and early race lead, while the likes of Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar mark each other. If this scenario plays out, Healy is exactly the type of rider who can benefit from that situation. 

The Irishman is a punchy, explosive rider who will have no trouble getting into any breakaway that forms, and he possesses enough of a kick to launch a flurry of attacks on the climbs along the road to Rimini which could see him force a gap. Backed up by riders of the calibre of Neilson Powless, newly crowned Italian national champion Alberto Bettiol and Richard Carapaz, anything really is possible for Healy. 

Stage one could see him go down in Tour history books forever, and what a story that would be too. 

Mark Cavendish will win not one but two stages - Tom Davidson

Earlier this week, my colleague Adam Becket wrote an opinion piece stating that he thinks Mark Cavendish will win one stage at this year’s Tour, and become the sole, all-time record holder with 35. I’m willing to go one step further: I think he’ll win two. 

The key, for me, is in his leadout. The last time Cav went to the Tour piloted by Michael Mørkøv, in 2021, he won four stages, at a time when people thought his career had fizzled out. Three years on, his top speed’s the same, Mørkøv hasn’t lost any of his nous for sniffing out gaps, and the duo’s telepathic bond is as strong as ever. The band is back together, and they're ready to play their greatest hits. 

Yes, I concede, the competition is strong (see: Jasper Philipsen, Arnaud De Lie, Phil Bauhaus, Dylan Groenewegen, Fabio Jakobsen, etc.), but there looks to be up to eight opportunities for the sprinters. That gives plenty of time for Cav to grow into the race, and once he does, I expect him to build momentum and strike twice – the old one-two combo, as they say in boxing. Sir Cav is ready to rumble.

Remco will wear yellow for 12 days - Chris Marshall-Bell

I can’t see Remco Evenepoel winning this year’s Tour de France, but I can see him wearing yellow for 12 days, only relinquishing it ahead of the final weekend.

The parcours in the opening stages are exactly like the one-day races he excels in. He’s hinted that he won’t attack from far out, but neither will he cede much time in the Italian double-header. I also don’t think he’ll be damaged by stage four’s crossing of the Galibier because it comes too early in the race for his rivals to really turn the screw.

I can therefore see Evenepoel being within 30 seconds of the lead come stage seven’s 25km time trial, and then taking a narrow lead in the race during the test against the clock. He is after all the time trial world champion. 

What comes after isn’t difficult enough for someone to snatch the maillot jaune off him: there’s a very tough stage in the Massif Central and two days out in the Pyrenees, but neither of them are at high altitude (Evenepoel’s weakness) and the GC riders will be mindful of holding their reserves back in preparation for the final week in the Alps.

It’s on stage 19, the queen stage, that I can see Evenepoel’s dream ending, with the ascent of the Cime de la Bonette (2,802m) undoing him and then falling out of the GC picture entirely come the finishing climb of Isola 2000. But a stage win(s) and 12 days in yellow is something the Belgian would take at the start.

Egan Bernal will prove the surprise of the race and finish on the podium – James Shrubsall

We've seen it all before, many of us had reflected sadly. FIrst Chris Froome, and now Egan Bernal. World-leading Grand Tour riders having not just their condition but apparently their ability to reach it at all wiped out by awful crashes. Bernal hit the back of a stationary bus on a training ride in January 2022, and counted a broken leg, back and ribs among his extensive injuries.

For the past two years, the Colombian has featured little at the top of any results. Last season, to his credit, he finished both the Tour de France and the Vuelta a España, clocking 36th and 55th respectively.

But over the winter he appears to have turned a corner. He has ridden six stage races this year and never finished outside the top-10 on GC. Indeed, at the recent Tour de Suisse – a key Tour de France warm-up race – he was fourth overall.

This July he will co-lead the Ineos Grenadiers team at the Tour de France alongside Carlos Rodríguez – to whom most are looking as a challenger to the big four. The Spaniard has had great results lately, but Bernal has been more consistent and almost as good.

The Colombian may not be the nailed-on Tour favourite he once was, but he knows how to win the race, both physically and mentally – key attributes.

Something like the old Egan Bernal – the one that most of us assumed we wouldn't see again – is not far off. Look out for him this July.