Who will win the Tour de France? Ranking the favourites for the yellow jersey

With the final tune up races out of the way, the Tour de France kicks off in Lille on Saturday, with the yellow jersey on the line over the next three weeks.

The three main favourites to win overall are still the same trio of riders that made up the podium: 12 months ago: Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel, with all three fresh off the back of an appearance at the Critérium du Dauphiné, which was won by Pogačar. Despite the Slovenian coming out on top by some margin, his main rivals for Tour victory showed moment at the week-long stage race and will have plenty of room for optimism before the race starts.

Pogačar remains on top, obviously, but Vingegaard will be able to take heart going into the race due to Visma-Lease a Bike fielding possibly the strongest team in years.

Beyond the big three, there are plenty of other riders heading to Lille who could have their say. Read on for Cycling Weekly’s guide to the contenders for overall victory and the podium at this year’s Tour de France.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

If it wasn’t clear enough already, Pogačar’s victory at last month’s Critérium du Dauphiné further cemented his status as the man to beat this July. The Tour’s amuse-bouche race was the first time the Slovenian had competed against both Vingegaard and Evenepoel since they finished 1-2-3 in Nice last year, and he beat them both at a canter, dropping them effortlessly when the road went uphill.

Last year’s Tour marked Pogačar’s third overall title, and his most resounding yet; he won by over six minutes, claiming six stage victories for good measure. Since then, he appears only to have grown stronger. A maiden world title followed last autumn, and there has been no sign of a rainbow jersey curse. Quite the opposite, in fact. In 22 race days this year, Pogačar has managed 11 victories – that’s a staggering hit rate of 50%.

Still, Superman has his kryptonite. Although Pogačar is one of the best time triallists in the world, he’s not as quick against the clock as his GC rivals Vingegaard and Evenepoel, the world and Olympic champion. Expect to see him lose time on stage five’s test around Caen, and then there's the small matter of stage 13's uphill TT, terrain where Vingegaard has stolen a march before.

Pogačar heads into this year’s Tour with one goal in his sights: a fourth yellow jersey. He’ll also be thinking about another career milestone as he approaches his 100th win – he’s currently on 99. No other active male pro has collected as many, a simple fact that stands as proof of the other-worldliness of cycling’s number one.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Given how prolific Pogačar was last year, and has been this year, it's easy to forget that not so long ago – 2022, ’23 – Vingegaard was the victor and the Slovenian the vanquished.

This season the tendency has been to assume that the new status quo will prevail – and a Pogačar cakewalk will ensue at the Tour. But don't forget that three months before last year's race, Vingegaard was literally in pieces, having sustained multiple fractures and a punctured lung in an awful crash at Itzulia Basque Country. And yet, somehow, he returned to win a stage and finish second on GC at the Tour. This year has been far smoother, although he did abandon Paris-Nice after crashing on stage five, breaking his wrist and sustaining a concussion.

The recent Dauphiné was his first race back, and he was found wanting in the face of Pogačar's romp to GC victory – most pointedly on stage six to Combloux, where the Slovenian took revenge for his 2023 loss to Vingegaard in the Tour de France mountain time trial, turning the tables to put just over a minute into the Dane.

In theory, the Dane will take the start line in Lille with his form honed to a fine blade, and Pogačar should take nothing for granted.

In terms of finding form, there is a lot of time between the Dauphiné and the Tour – and even more before Pogačar and Vingegaard are likely to tussle for the first time, on the 33km stage five time trial around Caen. There's all to play for.

Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)

Never mind the thought of racing Pogačar and Vingegaard this summer, the biggest barrier Remco Evenepoel is likely to face is the extensive pressure piled upon his shoulders from the media at home. Ever since he burst onto the pro scene, Evenepoel has faced lofty comparisons with Eddy Merckx, and other iconic racers of old, something which could derail those lacking the same confidence that he has.

Evenepoel comes into the Tour in top form, a remarkable feat considering he was left with nerve damage in his shoulder after being knocked from his bike by a post van before Christmas. He required surgery to repair multiple fractures, including a broken shoulder, hand and ribs, and told the media before his comeback race - Brabantse Pijl, which he won - that he had contemplated retirement, such was the extent of the damage.

“If I were a tennis player, or a volleyball player, then my career would have been over. So luckily, I'm a cyclist,” he said. "The injuries were quite severe with my shoulder where all the muscles and all the ligaments were destroyed. The surgery was a heavy one as well, and then you had the extra nerve problem, which completely stopped my shoulder from functioning, that was pretty hard to accept. It was just a difficult period.”

Despite the later start, Evenepoel’s form book this season carries victory in a major classic, third at Amstel Gold, and two top ten finishes in two major WorldTour stage races. His rivals will fear his time trial prowess and will know that they will need to be at their very best to distance him significantly in the high mountains. Evenepoel is very much a man to fear at this year’s Tour de France.

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Never mind his UAE team leader Pogačar, João Almeida is currently the most in form stage racer in the WorldTour, having won Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse . Despite the Portuguese rider’s fine form, he will switch to a mountain domestique role this July in support of Pogačar. But Almeida is the ideal man to step up and lead the team should anything happen to the Slovenian out on the road.

Almeida is one of several elite domestiques who will be gunning for their own top ten finish in Paris, which he achieved last year, with fourth.

Almeida could even contest the final place on the podium. Three stage wins at the Tour de Suisse, along with the overall victory, suggest the form is there and firmly rubber stamps Almeida as a man to watch out for this July.

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Despite being a five-time Grand Tour winner (4x Vuelta a España, 1x Giro d’Italia), Primož Roglič goes into the Tour as someone aiming for the podium, rather than the top step.

Red Bull made clear when Roglič was signed that his presence on the team had forced the German squad to completely recalibrate its goals at the French Grand Tour, the biggest race of the year, but the 35-year-old Slovenian now seems further away from the level of his compatriot Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel. A fact that underscores the vast chasm that’s opened up between him and the three best male riders in the world is his last four Tour results: DNF, DNF, DNF, and fourth overall.

Roglič should never be written off completely. When on form, and when he avoids crashes or accidents, the Slovenian is still one of the best pound for pound GC racers in the peloton, with his palmares attesting to that. If Roglič can finally get a bit of luck and a bit of consistency again then he should challenge for a top five finish in Paris this time round.

Should Roglič fall short, Red Bull will be able to call upon their up and coming German GC rider, Florian Lipowitz. The 21-year-old has been hugely impressive in 2025, finishing third overall at the Dauphiné last month.

Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Simon Yates is riding the crest of a wave right now, with victory at the Giro d’Italia in May one of the pinnacles of his career to date. The 32-year-old led Visma-Lease a Bike at the Italian Grand Tour but he will now have to adapt to a new support role to Jonas Vingegaard .

Yates will be one of three mountain domestiques for Visma, with American duo Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson also expected to get around Vingegaard at high altitude. Similarly to Almeida and his brother, Adam, at UAE, Yates’ new role won’t mean he doesn’t get the opportunity to aim high himself.

Ben O’Connor (Jayco-AlUla)

O’Connor has a history of cannily slipping into breakaways and gaining huge chunks of time, as at last year’s Vuelta a España where, after doing so in the first week, he wore the red jersey for 13 days and ultimately finished second overall. Rivals competing with him for a podium spot can ill-afford to let him get away with a similar ploy once again.

The Australian has enjoyed a solid start to life at his new team, Jayco AlUla, recording a seventh place finish at the Tour de Suisse, with three top ten stage finishes as he built form for the Tour. As well as a runner up spot at the Vuelta last year, the 29-year-old also took second behind Pogačar in the World Championships road race in Zurich, capping a solid year in which he also finished fourth at the Giro d'Italia.

If he is to finish on the podium, O’Connor’s best bet will be to play the long game, ride his own tempo in the mountains, and sneak away in a breakaway if he can.

Best of the rest

The French have been waiting more than anyone for a Tour winner with Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) the latest in a long line of hopefuls for the home nation. The pint-sized climber from Cannes possesses a fine turn of speed uphill, and a results sheet that includes stage wins at Paris-Nice, the Tour de Romandie and the Critérium du Dauphiné this year.

His teammate Santiago Buitrago has also made no secret of the fact he’s aiming for the top end of the top ten, and is another who could spring a surprise. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) proved last year that he’s capable of riding well for himself while supporting his team leader. The two-time Paris-Nice winner finished eighth last year and will be looking to improve on that this time out. Enric Mas (Movistar) is one of the most consistent leaders in the GC field and will return to the Tour looking to match his top-six finishes of the past. Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) is another rider who is perhaps not the flashiest of names amongst the favourites but his recent showing at the Tour de Suisse (fourth overall) suggests he’s building nicely for the Tour.

Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers) will be aiming for the top 10, but his form this year has been characterised by steady but unspectacular finishes towards the lower ranks of the top ten in stage races, suggesting that he won’t make the leap this year. Lidl-Trek's Mattias Skjelmose finished fourth at the Vuelta last year and will be hoping to trouble the top 10 in France, with his team's backing.

Another rider who came out of the Tour de Suisse well is Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL), who finished third overall, his best WorldTour stage race finish to date. The Scottish rider also took a stage win and will be targeting more of the same across the next three weeks. Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) has finished third before, although he has not raced since the Giro and appears to be slightly off form, finishing 12th in Italy, although that was in the service of Isaac del Toro.