And so here we are, the eve of a Tour de France queen stage, a once-a-year event that has proven to be Tadej Pogačar’s undoing in each of the past two editions: first came the Col du Granon in 2022, and then the Col de la Loze in 2023. Will Isola 2000 add to his nightmare collection?
Going into stage 19, a 145km ride with more than 4,500m of climbing, UAE Team Emirates’s Pogačar has a lead of 3:11 to Visma-Lease a Bike’s Jonas Vingegaard, the man who has delivered those most brutal of defeats. For Vingegaard, the defending champion, to make it a hat-trick of queen stage triumphs, he’s going to have to go deeper than ever before and produce a performance that supersedes his other masterclasses.
When he and his team look at the route profile, they’ll see that it’s uncannily similar to 2022’s pivotal day: a big climb into high altitude at the halfway point – the Cime de la Bonette, at 2,802m the highest paved through road in Europe – and then a fast descent preceding a steep finishing climb, the ski station of Isola 2000 playing host.
Back in 2022, Jumbo-Visma, through Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Tiesj Benoot, softened Pogačar up on the Galibier, and then Christophe Laporte and Wout van Aert, used as satellite riders in the break up the road that didn’t contain a UAE rider, dropped back to outnumber the Slovenian even more. By the time he got to the Granon, he was just about hanging on, and he was soon dropped, distanced, and out of yellow.
Visma sports director Grischa Niermann confirmed to Cycling Weekly that they’ve been preparing for tomorrow's queen stage for months, and though he wouldn’t divulge any tactics, he indicated that the rarefied air of the Bonette is where Vingegaard will aim to strike. “If we see that Pogačar has a weak moment on the Bonette, then for sure Jonas goes there,” Niermann said.
Bart Lemmen, the last-minute replacement for Sepp Kuss in this year’s race, declared that “we’re always confident, especially because Jonas is still feeling quite OK and the team is feeling good." He added: "I think the team has been going a great job the whole Tour in terms of tactics, the way we ride together, the cooperation, and of course we’re confident.”
Despite the upbeat statements, however, Visma are aware that the odds are stacked against them. Overturning a Pogačar in his best-ever shape, and just days away from completing a historic Giro-Tour double, is a momentous task, and they don’t expect the Slovenian to suffer at high altitude like he has in the past.
“Of course [the higher elevation should be better for Vingegaard], but I don’t think anywhere in the last two-and-a-half weeks we have seen Tadej having a problem,” Niermann said. “For sure we go for it, for sure there’s a chance that the Tour finishes in Nice, but we also have to see how it will work out tomorrow. I’m not defeated, but in the end if Jonas finishes second and Tadej is just better, then it is like this. We will fight to the end, but we are also realistic and not stupid.”
What works against Vingegaard this time is that UAE have the better performing team, and in contrast to the last few years, they have had the numerical advantage on the climbs. Tactics are one thing, studied for months, but ultimately it all comes down to the legs. “The key to beating Tadej tomorrow is Jonas being stronger than Tadej. That’s it, full stop,” Niermann said.
“Of course we have a plan, but the plan always comes down to how good the best riders are," he continued. "We can have the best plan – we have had a lot of good plans already for this Tour – but if Tadej turns out to be the strongest and unbeatable, then the best plan doesn't work.”
According to Pogačar, race strategy will go out the window. “It’s going to be the legs to push, not too much tactics playing in hand, and just mano a mano tomorrow and the day after.” Remco Evenepoel, in third and only two minutes shy of Vingegaard, was encouraged by Pogačar to attack the Dane on stage 19, and the Soudal Quick-Step rider predicted “fireworks.” But will they come from Visma or elsewhere?
