Tadej Pogačar’s big goal for 2025 is hardly a surprise – it is the Tour de France. The race squats over the rest of professional cycling like a giant toad, to ape the Spectator’s Tim Shipman’s description of former British prime minister Boris Johnson. It’s the only race that matters for many fans, for sponsors, for outsiders, and so it is understandable that the world champion’s focus is on a fifth yellow jersey. Few would bet against him equalling the record for most wins, after his dominant victories in 2024 and 2025.
The route for the 113th edition of the Tour will be announced on Thursday, and whatever is included in the 3,000km, whatever moves to ‘Tadej-proof’ the course have been included, it is still likely to suit the Slovenian. There are very few race routes that have caused the 27-year-old any cause for concern in the last two seasons, and not just at the Tour too, but in most other settings, as proved by his dominance in April, September and October this year.
News editor at Cycling Weekly, Adam brings his weekly opinion on the goings on at the upper echelons of our sport. This piece is part of The Leadout, a newsletter series from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here. As ever, email adam.becket@futurenet.com - should you wish to add anything, or suggest a topic.
Long Alpine climbs at altitude were thought to be a weakness, as were his team – who could forget his isolation at the hands of Visma-Lease a Bike in 2022 – but both of these appear to have been fixed. Therefore, how could a route be Tadej-proofed, anyway? Pogačar can climb, sprint, punch, and time trial with the best, so short of making every stage a flat sprint, or a flat time trial, it feels as if Tour route supremo Theirry Gouvenou has few options.
His rivals might find ways of beating him, something Jonas Vingegaard and Visma have experience of, but Pogačar will still go into next year’s Tour as the favourite, barring incident or injury. As he does every race. Sure, Remco Evenepoel and his new Red Bull team might come up with a masterplan of toppling Tadej, but from this far out, everything suggests a fifth Tour win.
If that all sounds boring and predictable, then I have good news for you, whether you’re a fan or a Grand Tour contender. Tadej Pogačar is probably not going to ride the Vuelta a España next year, and the Giro d’Italia seems unlikely too, although not impossible. That means two whole Grand Tours where the races will be more open and other riders can win; Jonas Vingegaard probably won’t ride both either.
Targeting a race where Pogačar is absent is not cowardice; no, in the age of Pog, it is realism. Call me simple, but it would be clever to aim for the Grand Tour where the best rider in the world is not present. Vingegaard could even make history by winning the Giro and becoming the eighth man to win all three Grand Tours, something not even Pogačar has done yet.
The tier of rider below the UAE Team Emirates-XRG leader is also bursting with talent, and we should look forward to the battle between Vingegaard, UAE’s João Almeida and Isaac del Toro, newly at Lidl-Trek Juan Ayuso, Evenepoel, Oscar Onley, even Tom Pidcock. A win at the Giro or the Vuelta would be transformational for most of these riders. In 20 years, few will examine the fact that they won a Grand Tour where Pogačar was absent; instead, they will just be on the roll of honour. Better to be a winner in your own right than an eternal second.
Winning also breeds confidence, confidence that is crucial if someone is actually to topple Tadej; if you are already focusing on next year’s Tour de France, pessimistic about the chances of winning, then perhaps your primary goal should shift to Spain or Italy. The Tour remains the Tour, but the most open racing might be elsewhere.
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