It took 52 years for someone to beat Merckx's Tour de France record - could anyone come close to taking it from Mark Cavendish?

Eddy Merckx broke the Tour de France stage win record on the 23 July 1972. The Belgian, who only made his debut at the French Grand Tour three years earlier, in 1969, amassed 26 stage wins out of just 104 opportunities. The Belgian won a quarter of days he started in his first four Tours to clinch the record from André Leducq, who had held the title of 'winningest' for the previous 40 years. 

Just under 52 years later, Mark Cavendish smashed through Merckx's yellow ceiling on stage five of the 2024 Tour de France. While the Belgian rode just seven Tours to make history, in just eight years, Cavendish has proved that longevity matters just as much. The Manxman is riding his 15th Tour, 16 years after he made his debut. He might not be able to match Merckx's strike rate, but he has outdone the Belgian on just a longer career. That, in itself, is impressive, let alone the winning. 

Cavendish is the Jimmy Anderson, the Ronnie O'Sullivan, of sprinting. To remain at the top of the sport for 16 years is madness. Not only has Erik Zabel, who he beat in the 2008 Tour de France, retired, but his son, Rick, has too. Marcel Kittel, the man who seemed like Cavendish's nemesis for a few years, only won 14 stages, and has been retired since 2019.

Given it has been over half a century since the last time the Tour record was broken, Cavendish might be safe at the top of the pile for now, but we can't rule out the possibility that the stage win record will last forever.

However, there is only one rider in the current peloton who can feasibly beat it: one Tadej Pogačar. 

The UAE Team Emirates rider, the man in the yellow jersey, has won 12 stage wins in five appearance so far; add a few more in over the next couple of weeks, and it could be on.

After the moment of history on Wednesday evening, Cavendish joked with Pogačar behind the podium, telling him "don't beat it", to which the man 14 years his junior replied "no I won't, no worries".

"When I was a kid, I was watching Mark with my friends and my brother," Pogačar said later, in his press conference. "He was just a hero to so many guys. He was winning in such a class with the team together. Now I'm already racing against him for six years. We became quite good friends, I would say. Winning the 35th stage, he's [in] historical company.

"Mark asked me behind the podium 'Please don't break this record' so I will let him have it," he added.

Will he, though? Pogačar won three stages at his first three Tours, two last year, and could feasibly win a few more in 2024. He just won six stages on his way to winning the Giro d'Italia, and is the closest thing cycling has to a modern Merckx.

It will come down to longevity more than anything else. It would take 12 Tours for Pogačar to break Cavendish's record - that's if the Manxman doesn't win any more - and most careers don't last that long at the top. Not in Tour de France stage-winning form, anyway. Merckx's record lasted 52 years, remember.

The Slovenian is different, though. He can win all sorts of different stages, and doesn't seem to ever be sated with winning. Even if he doesn't last as a general classification rider - something we can't really predict - one can imagine him still being there, sprinting to stage wins, punching to victory.

If Pogačar keeps riding well until his mid 30s, and keeps picking up a few Tour stage wins a year, then he is the only rider of the current generation who can deny Cavendish of an eternal place in history. 

Of course, there will be another great rider who comes eventually and sweeps the record away, things don't last forever. For now, Cavendish can sleep comfortably, knowing his place in history is secure, but don't bet against Pogačar.