'It's the worst case scenario for Tadej Pogačar': How the Tour de France could be about to turn on its head
How will Jumbo-Visma and Ineos Grenadiers respond to the latest setbacks for UAE-Team Emirates?

With only five UAE-Team Emirates domestiques to protect Tadej Pogačar in the Tour de France after George Bennett’s Covid positive, the question now is whether Jumbo-Visma and Ineos Grenadiers will use their numerical advantage to exploit the situation.
Bennett was sent home from the race on Tuesday morning as he became the second rider from the defending champion’s team in the last week to have to withdraw due to a Covid infection.
Panic was tangible at the start of stage 10 inside and outside the Tour bubble with the fear that multiple cases were imminent, but attention was also centred on how Bennett’s withdrawal will affect the outcome of the race.
Bora-Hansgrohe’s lead DS Rolf Aldag speculated that while a full roster of eight riders will benefit Jumbo-Visma and Ineos and “over the course of the race it will be to the disadvantage of UAE and Tadej”, the Slovenian still has the potential to be able to maintain his lead even despite a reduced team.
“We’re aware that something might happen now because there is a numerical advantage for others, but it still has to be seen how,” the German told Cycling Weekly.
“Breakaways will have a better chance because now they [UAE-Team Emirates] don’t have the luxury to really hold it very close and hold it down.
“But then we seen it last year when everybody said he [Pogačar] didn’t have a team and his team wasn’t strong enough, what did he do? He just rode away 55km from the finish and gained three minutes. With that shape and that capacity, then what do you do?”
Get The Leadout Newsletter
The latest race content, interviews, features, reviews and expert buying guides, direct to your inbox!
While both Jumbo and Ineos will now be looking to turn the race in their favour, Aldag cautioned that they have to be sensible in how they do so and not begin cancelling each other out.
He continued: “The worse case [for Pogačar] is that [Ineos] go attacking with Adam Yates, but then it’s not done, done, done because Tadej is supposedly super, super strong and the fact is he can still fix a lot of things, the race is still long. If he has to he can control it alone. Can he do it for two, three, or four days? Yes.
“If Yates rides away, do you think Jumbo will say, ‘ah, it’s fine. Tadej will lose the Tour’? No, because then what about [Jonas] Vingegaard? He’s also now not going to win [in that situation]. They’re here to win the Tour so they will have to start riding sooner or later.
“What happens if [Primož] Roglič rides away, will Ineos say, ‘OK, Tadej, you have to chase it’? If Roglič goes on the second last climb, you also have the scenario of if Ineos are going to close him or not because they will realise that they also want to win the GC.
“Another worst case scenario [for UAE] would be if a breakaway went with one from Ineos and Roglič. That would be bad for Tadej, but it’s very obvious and UAE and Tadej are not stupid or blind. If they can they will avoid that and then it puts the pressure on others because they also want to be on the podium.
“Once the GC is more established, third looks at second and fourth. If fourth goes you close it; if second goes you try to hang on. That’s going to be the question: if somebody really gambles and plays and says that they will give up their chances. If it’s going to be Ineos against Jumbo, Tadej will profit from it.”
Thank you for reading 20 articles this month* Join now for unlimited access
Enjoy your first month for just £1 / $1 / €1
*Read 5 free articles per month without a subscription
Join now for unlimited access
Try first month for just £1 / $1 / €1
A freelance sports journalist and podcaster, you'll mostly find Chris's byline attached to news scoops, profile interviews and long reads across a variety of different publications. He has been writing regularly for Cycling Weekly since 2013. In 2024 he released a seven-part podcast documentary, Ghost in the Machine, about motor doping in cycling.
Previously a ski, hiking and cycling guide in the Canadian Rockies and Spanish Pyrenees, he almost certainly holds the record for the most number of interviews conducted from snowy mountains. He lives in Valencia, Spain.
-
Fara F/Gravel Bike review: comfortable, versatile, with a good turn of speed
A rugged, trail-ready carbon gravel bike that can be as adventurous as you want it to be
By Hannah Bussey Published
-
Car drives towards peloton leading to pile-up in French stage race
Pre-race favourite Maxim van Gils taken to hospital after crash at Étoile de Bessèges
By Tom Davidson Published