Remco Evenepoel struggles for form in the mountains as Primož Roglič affirms Tour de France favourite status

Every year the Critérium du Dauphiné is used as a form-checker, and in some cases a form-finder, ahead of the biggest race in the cycling calendar, the Tour de France. 

This year two of the Tour’s ‘big four’ arrived at the race in unknown condition having both fallen victim to the same crash at Itzulia Basque Country in April, a crash which also took down two-time Tour champion Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike). 

The Dane, still recovering from his injuries, was not deemed fit enough by his team to take part in the Dauphiné this week and his Tour participation remains in doubt. Meanwhile, Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal - Quick-Step) have both had the opportunity to test their shape during the race often referred to as the ‘mini Tour de France’.

The signs looked good for Evenepoel during stage four’s 34 kilometre time trial as he took victory over Josh Tarling (Ineos Grenadiers) by 17 seconds and put 39 seconds into Roglič. However, as the race has headed into the mountains the tide has turned, Roglič looking every bit like a Tour de France favourite, while Evenepoel seems to have work to do.

“The shape is just not there,” Evenepoel said to reporters after finishing 13th on the Dauphiné’s queen stage, 1:46 down on stage winner Roglič.

Evenepoel had explained at the start of the week that he had no ambitions for the overall title at the Dauphiné, recognising that his fitness is not where it needs to be. The challenging mountain top finish up to Samoëns 1600 on stage 7 revealed all.

“Finishes like this, you need to be at 100% to perform at your best,” Evenepoel continued. “I mean, it's a 10% climb, so it's a climb that doesn't lie. I think it's clear that there's still some work, but like I already said in the beginning of the week, if I drop, I will keep pushing just to train, I mean, to improve my shape, so that's what I did.” 

“I don't think I did bad with the focus on the Tour,” Evenepoel added, keeping his focus on the weeks ahead.

The 24-year-old Belgian is confident that with three weeks still to go until the start of the Tour de France in Florence, his condition can improve and reckons that this week of hard racing is exactly what his body needs. 

“I need a race to really improve, to build shape, so that's why I'm here...I think it's good to suffer like this,” Evenepoel said.

“It's good for my shape, it's good for my head and just for my fighting spirit. So, yeah, nothing strange happened today. I expected this in the morning, and in the last valley, I think with 25 km to go, I said to the team that I was just not feeling good enough, so I was going to drop straight away at the bottom and then do my own pace, which was the best decision that I could take.”

Roglič 'happy' with his condition

While Evenepoel’s form is a point of concern ahead of the Tour, Roglič has cemented himself as one of the top favourites to take the yellow jersey with his performances in the Dauphiné. The Bora-Hansgrohe rider never looked in danger throughout the first two mountain stages and his team look ready to support him at the Tour.

When asked about his form after winning stage 7, Roglič said "I'm just happy about it. We put a lot of work with the whole team and it's nice to see that it pays off quite fast, that we did the right things."

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), the fourth expected figurehead in the battle for the Tour de France’s maillot jaune, showed imperious shape during his dominant Giro d'Italia victory last month. However, with the denouement of the Tour de France coming a whole eight weeks after that of the Giro, can he really hold that condition all the way to Nice and through the Tour’s difficult final week in the Alps?

Doubt remains over that question. Even more questionable is the form of Evenepoel and Vingegaard respectively as the Tour’s Grand Départ looms ever closer.

Meanwhile, having won the first two mountain stages at the Dauphiné, there is a case to be made that it is Roglič who is now emerging as the favourite to win the Tour. Of the ‘big four’, it is he who is showing the best form at the perfect time with the smoothest, most predictable run into the 2024 Tour de France.