Who will win the Vuelta a España? The contenders for the red jersey, from Jonas Vingegaard to Tom Pidcock

With so much emotional investment poured into the season already, the Vuelta a España has to try harder than almost any other major race to stoke the fires of fandom. Once again this year the Spanish Grand Tour deserves full marks for effort, having curated a challenging parcours that promises to yield some fantastic racing.

The field, too, comprises some of the best Grand Tours riders in the world, including no less than Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), UAE Team Emirates-XRG dual-threat Juan Ayuso and Joāo Almeida, former Giro d'Italia winner Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), and last year's runner-up Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla). Also there, British fans will note, is Tom Pidcock of Q36.5 Pro Cycling.

The Vuelta route, too, is quite interesting. For the third time in four editions the race starts abroad – this time in northern Italy, beginning with a mass-start stage for only the third time this century.

It lingers abroad for four days, crossing into France on stage four for the second of two mid-mountain days that could see the first GC action.

Back in Spain a team time trial awaits, and from this point on there is little escape from the hills. Stage 13 in particular – lucky for some – will loom large over the race. The longest in the race at a comparatively modest 202km, it ends atop the steep, brutish Angliru.

This isn't a race for the sprinters, but any that have hung on till stage 19 will finally find another flat stage (the last stage ranked as properly flat is stage one), and another on the final day to a city-centre finish in Madrid.

Here are the contenders for the overall victory at the end of three weeks, as well as other riders to watch out for.

Vuelta a España red jersey contenders

Jonas Vingegaard
28 | Visma-Lease a Bike | Den
Previous Vuelta starts: 2
Best GC result: 2nd (2023)
Best stage result: 1st (x2)

Last time Jonas Vingegaard rode the Vuelta a España, he was upstaged by a team-mate that he arguably could have beaten to victory. While the Dane seemed OK with settling for second place behind Sepp Kuss (who had, after all, helped him to multiple Tour de France victories), team-mate Primož Roglič was not so amiable. The situation saw Visma immersed in a public furore and, win or lose, Vingegaard will be happy not have to deal with that this time round.

Unlike in 2023, when he had just won the Tour for the second time, Vingegaard has only won once this year, back in February. And while he podiumed eight times on his way to second place at the Tour, neither stage nor GC win happened for him there. He'll be looking to rectify that in Spain.

He's back at the Vuelta with Kuss, but as his team's unopposed leader this time around. In the absence of Tadej Pogačar, he is the almost unopposed favourite for the red jersey, although UAE Team Emirates-XRG will have something to say about this. The Dane has consistently been the best GC rider not called Tadej in the last few seasons, and a brutal Vuelta route will suit him.

Tom Pidcock
26 | Q36.5 Pro Cycling | Gbr
Previous Vuelta starts: 1 (2021)
Best GC result: 67
Best stage result: 4th

By Tom Pidcock standards, 2025 has so far been a pretty quiet year. Not just in terms of results, but in terms of controversy and high jinks and general… noise. And you get the impression that that is exactly how he likes it.

Now, on a three-year contract at new team Q36.5 Pro Cycling, Pidcock says he feels liberated.

“I feel like I’ve been let off the lead," he said earlier this season. "I’ve found new interest, life and energy in cycling. It’s really been revitalising."

In short, 2025 has seen a happier, less pressured Tom Pidcock.

And while the Yorkshire rider has had a quieter season, he has been far from invisible, winning the AlUla Tour back in February and placing top-10 in all three Ardennes Classics, as well as taking an impressive-by-any-standards second place at Strade Bianche.

Now, he says he is excited to have been invited to the Vuelta a España with his Q36.5 team – not something they would have taken for granted given their second-tier ProTeam ranking.

"I did my first Grand Tour four years ago in Spain and have great memories of it," Pidcock said. "Back then, everything was new, but this year, I go in with a lot more experience and higher expectations—especially with the Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team by my side.”

Pidcock has not spelled out exactly what his approach will be, but it is likely to prioritise stage wins, while keeping half an eye on the GC.

Ben O’Connor
29 | Jayco AlUla | Aus
Previous Vuelta starts: 2
Best GC result: 2nd (2024)
Best stage result: 1st

Ben O’Connor returns to the race where he finished second overall last year, after spending almost two weeks in the race lead. The Vuelta will be the Australian’s second Grand Tour of the year, after he finished 11th at the Tour de France, picking up a stage win on the Col de la Loze on the way. His first year with Jayco AlUla has been up and down, but definitely seems on a positive trajectory after his second victory at the Tour.

It is unlikely the 29-year-old will be given as much rope as he was by Primož Roglič last year, but at a seriously climbing-heavy Vuelta, O’Connor has the tools to make hay, and could take the fight to Vingegaard, if he has recovered from the fatigue of the Tour. He will be ably supported by Eddie Dunbar and Chris Harper, two other climbers who could make their mark on this race.

Egan Bernal
28 | Ineos Grenadiers | Col
Previous Vuelta starts: 2
Best GC result: 6th (2021)
Best stage result: 4th

It has been a long road back for 2019 Tour de France winner Egan Bernal. He was involved in a horror crash just days after his 25th birthday in January 2022, and has not long started to look like his old self again.

A seventh place on GC at this year's Giro d'Italia, as well as third place on a cat-one summit stage finish is by far his best Grand Tour result since before the accident.

After a two-month break, the Colombian returned to racing earlier this month at the Vuelta a Burgos, which should be good preparation for the Spanish Tour.

A GC win at the Vuelta would complete the set for Bernal, who also won the Giro in 2021, and he says, "It's my dream."

"I don't know if I'll achieve it or not, but the truth is I wake up every day thinking about being the best again."

Joāo Almeida
26 | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | Por
Previous Vuelta starts: 3
Best GC result: 4th (2022)
Best stage result: 3rd (x2)

There is only so much you can do with a broken rib, as Portugal's current best export found out during last month's Tour de France. Riding in the service of Tadej Pogačar as a key domestique, Almeida was caught up in a high-speed crash on stage seven, and was forced to abandon the following day.

It means he will be without the conditioning effect of riding the whole race – not to mention having to recover from his injuries. However, it should mean he is fresh, and he will likely have been training hard in the interim.

He has best finishes of fourth place in each of the Grand Tours, and up to the Tour de France, Almeida had a superb season, with wins at the Tour de Suisse, the Tour de Romandie and Itzulia Basque Country. He should prove a force to be reckoned with at the Vuelta.

Juan Ayuso
22 | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | Spain
Previous Vuelta starts: 2
Best GC result: 3rd
Best stage result: 3rd

At the beginning of May, Juan Ayuso headed to the Giro d’Italia as one of two outstanding favourites, along with Primož Roglič. Three weeks later, neither were on the podium, and both had left the race early. Ayuso had suffered the ignominy of being usurped by his UAE teammate Isaac del Toro in the general classification, and suffered a knee injury at the race.

Despite all this, there was a reason he was a favourite for the Giro, and those haven’t disappeared. The 22-year-old is the all-round GC package, with good time trialling, climbing and awareness skills. With Pogačar dropping the Vuelta from his schedule, a slot has opened up for Ayuso, and why couldn’t the Spaniard do better than a podium place this time around? If there is a Spanish rider ready to be the first to win the Vuelta since Alberto Contador in 2014, it very much is the young man from Barcelona.

Other GC hopes

Among the five Grand Tour winners on the start list is Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe). The Australian hasn’t won a stage race since he was triumphant at the 2022 Giro d’Italia, but will head to Spain hoping to achieve past form. If he doesn’t, his younger teammate Giulio Pellizzari finished sixth at the Giro this year, and is one of the coming things at the team.

Giulio Ciccone will lead Lidl-Trek for the race, who won the Clásica San Sebastián at the beginning of August, and who is in the hunt for GC and stage wins, and proved his form again at the Vuelta a Burgos with a stage win and second overall.

Fresh off the Tour de France is Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike), a two-time winner of Paris-Nice. If Vingegaard doesn’t fire, the American is a capable deputy. Also heading to the Vuelta after the Tour are Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) and Guillaume Martin (Groupama-FDJ), two riders who could test the top 10. Gall finished fifth in France, his best result in a Grand Tour to date.

Another Spanish hope, still searching for an overall victory after 10 top-10 results, is Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step), who at 35 returns to his home race hoping for a first podium. He was in form going into the Giro, but crashed out on stage one. Anything would be better than that this time.