More risks, a fear of negative racing and the mud - pros predict how Unbound Gravel will play out

A long-range flyer crossing the finish solo. A nine-up sprint coming down the chute. A five-person breakaway detonating in the final kilometre. Expected victors and unknown Unbound debutants. Year after year, Unbound Gravel ends differently, and on the eve of the world’s biggest gravel race, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Every factor of the race is challenging: the long, 200-mile distance, the terrain known for its tyre-slicing rocks and undulating profile, and the self-sufficiency. Without follow cars, riders have to possess some mechanical know-how to fix issues on the fly while also carrying enough water and nutrition to last up to 70 miles at a time. Even the absolute fastest pros need more than 9 hours to complete the course.

And then there's the weather. From unseasonable heat waves to powerful headwinds and the bike-destroying mud, the elements in remote Kansas can be a rider's biggest adversary.

As is often the case on this storied course, mud has dominated the conversation in the days leading up to the race. It had been raining early in the week and when wet, the thick clay has been known to cause crashes, clog up drivetrains, rip derailleurs off and, in general, dash riders’ dreams. But the course will have had two days to dry out by the time the 200-mile flagship race gets going, and the bigger factor may instead be the humidity and muggy conditions.

All of this adds up to a race that is wide open, and predictions, frankly, feel futile.

“I’m excited to see who wins Unbound,” commented race-favourite Sarah Sturm. Half in jest, perhaps, but with so many unknowns, from the weather to the increasingly global field full of hidden talents, victory could come from anywhere. Just last year, Rosa Kloser stunned the gravel world with a breakout win as a virtual unknown.

Still, we asked the pros to weigh in and share their expectations.

The Women’s Race

The women’s elite race got its own, separate race start in 2024, and they made it count. The race ended in an unprecedented and thrilling finish with a nine-rider breakaway contesting the sprint, with Rosa Kloser emerging as the victor.

While exciting to watch for the race fans, another multi-rider sprint would be an undesired outcome for some of the contestants.

“I’ll bet there will be more tactics than last year,” said Sturm. “No one took any risk. This year, I think there’s going to be more risks taken because some of us don’t want to be in a sprint.”

Tactics aside, the American added that mud always plays a big factor in how a race unfolds.

“If we hit a muddy road, that’s going to be a divider for sure,” she said, adding that the race quickly becomes one of attrition.

“It keeps shedding people until it gets down to a core group and then the race tactics will start.”

British rider Danni Shrosbree, currently sidelined by injury but present in Kansas nonetheless, echoed Sturm’s sentiment.

“I do think people will try and split it up earlier this year. Mud will do it naturally, but even within a smaller group, people are going to try and split it up.”

A new and growing factor this year could be the presence of team tactics. While the Specialized-sponsored riders attempted to collaborate informally in 2024, gravel racing is increasingly seeing the rise of organised teams, such as PAS Racing.

“I do think it makes a difference and we want to, for sure, use team tactics if we can,” Karolina Migoń, a PAS rider and winner of the Traka 360, told Cycling Weekly.

“But we have a field of like 100 women and I think at least 15 can win Unbound,” Migoń said. “It’s too hard to predict.”

The Polish rider has been a very strong contender in Europe’s gravel scene, but at her Unbound debut last year, she suffered mechanicals that kept her from the pointy end of the race.

“I hope that I won’t have bad luck,” Migoń said, highlighting her main objective. “And that I’ll be in the front group and can fight for the win.”

She’s eager to win, but after her repeat victory at the Traka, she feels like the pressure is off.

“I already have something that I won this year so it’s mentally easier to know that I am strong and have no pressure on my side,” she said. “I would love to win Unbound but it’s a very special race.”

The men's race

The men’s elite race at the 2024 Unbound Gravel saw a long-range escape by Lachlan Morton and Chad Haga. The duo spent nearly half the race riding together before Morton out-sprinted Haga to secure his first Unbound Gravel win.

Such an escape is unlikely to repeat, predicted several riders.

“I don’t think a duo is going to get away this year,” said Alexey Vermeulen, always a race favourite.

“No one’s going to let that happen again. Which, sadly, does mean there could be some negative racing.”

Negative racing is a style of racing that is conservative, passive or overly defensive i an effort to prevent breakaways.

Alex Howes, another former road racer, hopes for something more dynamic.

“The more tactics the better, for me personally, for the race, for the ambience,” he said.

As for how he sees the finale shaping up?

“I think it’ll be two to eight guys in the finish. Will he be in it? Ha, probably not.”

How to Watch Unbound Gravel

The racing kicks off at 5:50 a.m. Central time with the men’s elite race. The women’s elite race will leave 15 minutes later, at 6:05 a.m.

For the first time ever, the elite men’s and women’s 200-mile Unbound Gravel races will be broadcast live on the Life Time Grand Prix YouTube channel. The coverage kicks off at 10:00 a.m. CT on Saturday, May 31, with a pre-show before jumping into uninterrupted race action and post-race interviews.